Will spiking shipping costs cause inflation to surge?

When economists talk about bottlenecks, they typically refer to points in a supply chain that slow down production. The global economy is at present providing a rather literal example of the metaphor. It is as if someone has put a cork in the Suez and Panama canals.

In normal times, the canals carry about 10% and 5% of maritime global trade respectively. Now the Panama Canal Authority has capped the number of ships that may traverse its channel, owing to low water levels. Attacks by Houthi militants on ships in the strait of Bab al-Mandab, part of the passage from the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal, have prompted some of those travelling between Europe and Asia to take the longer route round Africa instead.