It took Patrick Roy the better part of 10 weeks to find a forward configuration that produced sustained success for the Islanders.
So if Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s injury, apparently sustained on a hit around the crease by Reilly Smith with 9:18 to go in the first period in Wednesday’s win over Pittsburgh, ends up keeping the center out for Game 1 against Carolina on Saturday, it would have implications beyond merely losing the player.
The Islanders would have to at least start the series with newly modified forward lines.
Casey Cizikas would be an obvious candidate to play Pageau’s spot centering the third line, but that would in turn break up a top line that has been producing at a high level.
Anders Lee has played plenty alongside Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, so that may prove to be the path of least resistance, with Simon Holmstrom being reinserted to play on the rejiggered third line.
Holmstrom, Cizikas and Pierre Engvall have played 100:01 together this season with a 49.04 expected goals percentage — not ideal, but that would at least let Roy leave well enough alone on the second and fourth lines.
With Pageau, however, the lineup is deeper and Roy has more options if something goes wrong.
It’s not a coincidence that the Islanders have been winning since Lee returned to Pageau’s wing with Cizikas playing up top with Horvat and Barzal.
Pageau and Lee have produced a 56.54 expected goals percentage on the ice together this season and can form the basis of a checking line in the postseason.
Cizikas, Horvat and Barzal have been excellent as a line, accounting for 59.81 percent of shots and 62.22 percent of high-danger chances.
Since the Islanders didn’t practice Thursday, there was nothing in the way of updates on Pageau.
It is entirely possible that he didn’t return to Wednesday’s game merely out of caution and will be fine for the playoffs.
Roy’s only comment after the game was that he had yet to speak to the trainer.
But the Islanders already have a question mark hanging over their defense with Noah Dobson’s injury.
If Dobson — who has been called day-to-day and skated on his own Wednesday — can’t go, that is nearly 25 minutes of high-end production every night that the Islanders will need to find a way to replace.
Dealing with injuries on defense is, at least, nothing new for this team.
But none of their top-nine forwards has gotten hurt all year for more than a few games at a time.
Now would be a bad time for that streak to end.
It does not help either that the Islanders are playing Game 1 on Saturday as opposed to Sunday or Monday.
A day or two of extra rest could make a difference for either player, let alone the rest of a roster that has been operating at playoff intensity for the past three weeks in order to qualify for the tournament.
There are parallels to the situation against Carolina last year, when the Islanders were without Alexander Romanov in the first two games and had Barzal return from injury in Game 1.
Romanov’s absence — and the subsequent insertion of Sam Bolduc into the lineup — meant the defense was overstretched.
Barzal, meanwhile, had just two goals and no assists in the six-game series over which he never quite looked to be operating at full effectiveness.
In a six-game series where three of the Islanders’ losses were by one goal and two came in overtime, that made a big difference.
It wouldn’t be surprising at all if these injuries did, too.