There’s a full slate of games on tap in MLB on Tuesday, and we have two games circled to fill out our betting card.
Here are our best bets for Tuesday, April 16.
MLB best bets for Tuesday
Rockies vs. Phillies odds, prediction
(6:40 p.m. ET)
| Teams | Runs Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | +1.5 (+100) | +200 | o8.5 (-102) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (+100) | -245 | u8.5 (-118) |
Philadelphia needed extra innings to grind out a 2-1 win in Monday’s series opener with the Rockies, in a game in which it was also a heavy favorite.
It seems unlikely Tuesday’s game will follow a similar script with a pitching matchup featuring southpaws Austin Gomber and Ranger Suarez.
Gomber had a 5.50 ERA in 139 innings in 2023. Early indicators suggest he will post comparable numbers in 2024, as he’s pitched to a 6.31 xERA and held a Stuff+ rating of 79.
Away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, he still allowed a .449 SLG rate and 1.37 WHIP in 2023.
Opponents own a 56% hard-hit rate on Gombers’ fastball since the start of last season, which is the third highest mark of any starter to pitch more than 70 innings
The Phillies’ offense is also strong in splits versus left-handed pitching. Even amid what has been a slow start to the season offensively, they have hit to a wRC+ of 101 versus lefties. Based upon last season, that is still at the low end of their potential.
Suarez is off to an excellent start to the season, with a 2.17 xERA and 2.45 xFIP across 17 IP. ZiPS projects a 4.03 ERA from Suarez in 2024, and his early results state that mark should be highly attainable.
The Rockies provide Suarez as soft of a matchup as there is in MLB.
They hit to a wRC+ of only 74 versus left-handed pitching last season, and with no significant changes to the lineup should remain equally horrific this season.
There is value backing the Phillies to cover the run line at anything better than -130.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-114, BetRivers)
Padres vs. Brewers odds, prediction
(7:40 p.m. ET)
| Team | Runs Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -1.5 (+130) | -125 | o8.5 (-110) |
| Brewers | +1.5 (-155) | +105 | u8.5 (-110) |
Dylan Cease has had an excellent start to his Padres career, as he enters tonight’s matchup with a 2.16 ERA through two starts.
His underlying numbers have also been very solid (104 Pitching+, 3.96 xFIP).
While Cease has been legitimately dominant, his strikeout prop number of 7.5 still is a touch high because of Tuesday’s opponent.
The Brewers have gotten off to an excellent start because of a much-improved offense this season.
Their average of 6.27 runs scored per game average ranks second in MLB, and they have achieved that with a sound process at the plate.
Their 0.43 BB/K ranks 10th-best in baseball, and they own a fifth best xSLG rating of .438. They have swung at just 23.8% of pitches outside of the zone, which is the second-lowest clip in baseball.
The Brewers, specifically, have hit right-handed pitching very well, ranking second in MLB with a 136 wRC+ versus righties.
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Most importantly to this bet, they have struck out only 20.6% of the time against right-handed pitchers.
Cease has stayed under 7.5 in all three matchups so far, and there is value backing that trend to continue Tuesday at -135 or better in this specific matchup versus the Brewers.