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RICHARD DANNATT
What Israel does next must be driven by cool-headed analysis, not emotion – retaliation could be a disaster for all
A further strike on Iran could turn deteriorating world opinion even more firmly against Israel
WHEN Iran attacked Israel on Saturday night with more than 300 drones and missiles there was a justifiable cry of outrage that this was a murderous attack on another sovereign country.
Quite naturally, parallels were drawn between that attack and the assault by Russia on February 22, 2022, on Ukraine.
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In the 21st century it is quite unacceptable for one country to attack another.
Mercifully for Israeli civilians, the incoming weapons were either destroyed in flight or mostly crashed harmlessly, though one seven-year-old girl suffered life-threatening injuries.
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, Israeli minister Benny Gantz declared that Israel would react and “exact a price” from Iran, but “in timing that is right for us”.
Deadly battle
On one level that desire for revenge is understandable — “an eye for an eye” is a concept well known to the Israelis. But is it right?
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Many world leaders and commentators have been calling instead for Israel to exercise restraint.
What Israel does next must be driven by a cool-headed analysis, not by an emotional impulse from the heart.
This extraordinary attack should be seen in its fullest context.
In the years leading up to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Iran had been watching Israel getting increasingly close to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
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The so-called Abraham Accords encouraged the basis of a growing peace in the Middle East region.
Iran was becoming more and more isolated and worried.
Whether inspired by, or just encouraged by, Iran, the Hamas attacks of October 7 blew the Abraham Accords out of the water and pitched the Israelis into a deadly battle.
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Iran launches drones in strike as Israel warns citizens to find cover
Hamas vowed to destroy Israel and Israel asserted its right to fight for its very existence.
Part of that fight was the attack on April 1 on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus killing several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders.
The IRGC is the extreme wing of the Iranian state and undoubtedly supporting Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen in their determination to destroy Israel.
It was in response to this attack, contravening the Vienna Convention which protects diplomatic facilities, that the Iranians launched their missile strikes on Saturday.
So it can be argued that Israel launched an attack on Iran — their embassy in Damascus — and now Iran has launched a massive retaliation on Israel.
But was it just luck or military brilliance that prevented any Israelis losing their lives on Saturday?
No, it now seems certain that Iran signalled in the middle of last week that it intended to strike Israel with drones and missiles.
This gave time for the Israelis to ensure they were ready and Israel’s principal ally, the United States, could prepare to help Israel repel this attack.
Orchestrated by US Central Command, the Americans sought to involve British, French and Jordanian aircraft in this defensive mission.
We all now know the successful result.
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But what should happen now? Is it right for Israel to be planning a retaliation?
Does either Israel or Iran really want to spark a wider war in the Middle East?
For Israel, there is major unfinished business in Gaza.
Already attracting huge criticism around the world for killing more than 33,000 people there and now being accused of allowing the surviving Gazans to starve, a further strike on Iran could turn world opinion even more firmly against Israel.
Should Israel strike Tehran in the way Iran struck Tel Aviv and Jerusalem the civilian casualties could be enormous.
Iran does not have the same defensive systems as the Israelis and their main ally is not the world’s one military superpower but a bunch of terrorist organisations.
Israel could stand accused of another disproportionate overreaction.
On these purely pragmatic grounds Israel would be better advised to complete its mission in Gaza — destroy Hamas and begin the rebuilding of that devastated place — and not escalate the war with Iran.
Strange bedfellows
Moreover, could the Israelis count on the same support from the Americans?
President Biden says not, and I am quite certain that the British Government would not want to get involved.
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And on the Iranian side, what is in it for them? Do they want to provoke a major war with the West?
Already isolated in the region, they would be forced to throw in their lot with China, Russia and North Korea — strange bedfellows for a fundamentalist Muslim state — making up the so-called Crinks, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
And that is the other side of the coin.
The Islamist regime is not as secure in Tehran as it would wish.
There are strong opposition calls for Iran to take a different path.
Whichever way you look at the events of the past few days, to draw a line and move on makes most sense.
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Retaliation could be a disaster for all concerned.
- General The Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff/Head of the British Army.