Few want to see Israel go to war with Iran.
Not Israel’s traditional allies, such as the United States and France.
Not Iran’s traditional confidantes, such as Turkey or Russia.
Not the neighbouring Gulf and Arab states that risk being sucked in and torn apart.
But after Saturday’s drone-and-missile attack on Israel and Israel’s disclosure Monday that they will respond, an out-and-out war between the two sworn enemies may happen all the same.
Iran has a say in what happens next, of course. Iranian officials have expressed hope that the confrontation will now cool, in the wake of their assault, while promising an escalating response if forced to act.
If the ball now lies mainly in Israel’s court, there are a number of reasons, including the perceived need to send a message of deterrence, the chance to shift attention from the humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip, and the political future of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu why full-out war could ensue between countries that have been locked in a decades-long shadow conflict.
Military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that Israel is still considering its steps, but he said that the Iranian strike of missiles and attack drones “will be met with a response.” Halevi spoke during a visit to the Nevatim air base, which Israel said suffered light damage in the Iranian attack.
The roots of the animosity between Jerusalem and Tehran are deep.
Iran funnels money and weapons to the various militias in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen that are engaged in the fight against Israel. It has provided military training to Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that launched the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. Iran’s rulers publicly celebrated the devastation, in which more than 1,200 people were killed in southern Israel and more than 200 others taken hostage.
Israel has focused its efforts on sabotaging Iran’s nuclear program through a campaign of undercover assassinations and cyberattacks. But since Oct. 7, Israel has conducted strikes in Syria that have killed top Iranian military leaders, the most significant being an attack earlier this month on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed 11 people. Seven of them were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the most senior being Brig-Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a Quds Force leader responsible for foreign operations in Syria and Lebanon.
With Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing revenge, those deaths can now be seen as the impetus for Saturday’s Iranian response, in which more than 350 drones, missiles and rockets were fired from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF claimed to have intercepted “99 per cent of the threat toward Israel” with the help of the U.S., France, Britain and other allies. One young girl, age seven, was critically injured by shrapnel from a downed Iranian missile.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the world is on edge.
A conflict that has been conducted for many years in hushed tones, without official claims of responsibility, was telegraphed in advance before the barrage of screaming missiles were dispatched Saturday. Iranian lawmakers openly celebrated the unprecedented show of force against Israel, with cries of “Death to Israel.”
The two countries have been sworn enemies since the 1979 Iranian revolution, when the Islamic regime cut diplomatic ties and Iran’s First Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, declared America to be the “Great Satan” and Israel to be the “Little Satan.”
It would seem that Israel has enough troubles and little interest in expanding its war with Hamas to include more intensive confrontation with Iran.
The conflict in Gaza is unfinished.
In six months, Israel’s war effort has killed more than 32,000 Palestinians, according to health ministry officials in Gaza. Now, Gazans are facing a starvation crisis prompted by an Israeli aid blockade that has tested the patience of its allies.
Meanwhile, some 260 Israeli soldiers have been killed in battle since Oct. 7, but the country has yet to achieve its goals of eliminating Hamas or liberating the remaining Israeli hostages.
But there are at least three considerations that could lead Israel to a gloves-off war with Iran, the very thought of which is making world leaders shudder.
The first is that the regime in Iran serves, for Israel, as an easier or more obvious villain than Hamas. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization; it also says it serves as a national liberation movement for the Palestinian people, whose suffering throughout the war has led to sharp criticism of the Israeli military’s conduct and charges it is conducting a genocide against the Palestinians.
Iran is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, and it will be hit with more punishment in the wake of Saturday’s attack. It has been striving for nuclear weaponry, sending drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, brutally repressing its own population and serving more generally as a destabilizing force both in the Arab world and beyond.
Opening up a new front to go to war with Iran may stretch thin the Israeli military, but it could also force international alliances to close ranks with Israel after increasingly public criticisms about its conduct in Gaza. Concerned about the number of Palestinians killed in the six-month war, Canada cut arms sales to Israel earlier this year. The U.S. and other western countries have faced pressure to follow suit.
A hot war with Iran could recast those calculations, as evidenced by G7 leaders who issued a statement Sunday vowing “full solidarity and support to Israel” and “our commitment towards its security.”
Secondly, a direct war with Iran could shore up domestic political support for Netanyahu’s government — support it badly needs.
Israel’s Gaza battlefield problems, particularly the failure to achieve the release of the remaining 133 Israeli hostages, have reached a fever pitch in Israel, where there have been frequent and well-attended protests demanding an end to Netanyahu’s reign.
Netanyahu’s popularity was slumping even before Oct. 7 due to a controversial bill to weaken Israel’s judiciary, and criminal corruption charges. His public accounting for the intelligence failures that led to the Oct. 7 attack can be held off only so long as Israel is mired in conflict.
It may be the same with an election.
To stay in power, Netanyahu needs to hold together his right-wing coalition government, and the pin in that particular grenade is the sentiment and demands of figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who tweeted in response to the Iran attacks: ”Impressive defence so far. Now we need a crushing attack.”
The thirst for revenge against Iran isn’t concentrated at just one end of Israel’s political spectrum. Opposition party leader Benny Gantz, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces and the leading candidate to replace Netanyahu as prime minister, was reportedly among those urging quick retaliation against Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 TV.
Iran has long been viewed as an existential threat for the state of Israel, and opinion polls conducted even before the current conflict showed strong support for attacking Iran before it has a chance to build a nuclear weapon.
The report said that the Israeli strike-back scenario was discounted due both to operational considerations by the Israeli military and pressure from Israel’s allies, namely the United States. U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly told Netanyahu that America would not support a retaliatory strike against Iran.
The third consideration is the thinking that has dominated politics and conflict in the Middle East for decades: that overwhelming shows of force are the most effective way to deter enemies from attacking.
This thinking has underpinned so much of the conflict over the years that many are blinded to alternative solutions or paths that could lead to peace.
What will Iran do? The regime has sought to cast its attack on Israel as a legitimate response to the Damascus consulate strike.
Following a United Nations Security Council meeting Sunday, Iran’s UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, said: “I think there should be no military response from Israel.”
Many other countries looking on nervously feel the same. But Netanyahu’s own words to his nation in advance of Saturday’s Iranian attack suggest that the old mentalities remain firmly in place.
“Whoever harms us, we will harm them.”
With files from The Associated Press
