Catalonia’s electoral evolution: shifting priorities and political dynamics

His confident gaze in campaign posters contrasts sharply with his clandestine border crossing six years ago, symbolizing the dramatic shifts since the failed 2017 secession attempt.

This Sunday’s elections serve as a litmus test for Catalonia’s stance on Puigdemont’s leadership and the broader issue of secession. While some wonder if the region still desires his return, others question whether Catalonia has moved beyond the secession debate, prioritizing other pressing concerns.

Ironically, recent political maneuvers by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have inadvertently bolstered Puigdemont’s political standing. Sánchez’s promises of amnesty to Puigdemont and fellow separatists, aimed at securing support for a new government in Madrid, could now potentially backfire if Puigdemont is reelected—a prospect that unsettles many Spaniards.

Sánchez’s risky decisions regarding Catalonia, largely unpopular elsewhere in Spain, have nevertheless gained traction within the region. Salvador Illa, the Socialist candidate, leads in polls, presenting himself as a beacon of Catalonia’s future while positioning Puigdemont as a relic of the past.

However, Illa’s bid for regional presidency hinges on coalition-building, likely with Pere Aragonès’ Republican Left of Catalonia. Puigdemont, on the other hand, campaigns on the promise of returning home under the umbrella of amnesty, yet his fate rests on the election outcome and subsequent political negotiations.

As Catalonia grapples with evolving priorities, such as drought and climate change, the secession question has taken a back seat for many voters. Support for independence has waned since 2017, reflecting a shifting landscape in Catalan politics.

Political analysts observe a period of uncertainty in the secessionist movement, unsure of its future trajectory. While the allure of independence persists for some, Catalonia’s electoral landscape reflects a nuanced shift towards broader societal concerns.