We have a full 15-game slate in Major League Baseball on Friday, but one game clearly stands above the rest.
Two National League pennant hopefuls square off in Los Angeles, with the Dodgers hosting the Braves in the final game of the day.
First pitch at Dodgers Stadium between these two heavyweights is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network).
We’re targeting a three-leg parlay for this game with +750 odds.
Braves vs. Dodgers odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | +102 | -1.5 (+154) | o9 (-122) |
| Dodgers | -118 | +1.5 (-185) | u9 (+102) |
Braves vs. Dodgers prediction
Both teams were among the favorites to win the pennant last season, but the Diamondbacks went on an improbable run to capture the NL crown.
The Dodgers revamped in the offseason, as they shelled out nearly $1 billion to top-of-the-market free agents like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Braves made a significant trade to add Chris Sale and signed Reynaldo Lopez, who has excelled in his transition from reliever to starting pitcher, but their offseason was fairly tame compared to the Dodgers.
Despite different offseason tactics, both teams are off to great starts and leading their respective divisions.
Friday night’s game at Chavez Ravine sits at nearly even odds, with the Dodgers being slight favorites depending on where you are shopping.
The Braves have the starting pitching advantage, with Charlie Morton on the mound opposing Gavin Stone for the Dodgers.
Morton’s strikeout rate has declined sharply this season, but his results have held steady thanks to an improved hard-hit and barrel rates. He is giving up more contact, but less quality contact.
Both offenses rank top three in MLB, with the Dodgers first and the Braves third, according to wRC+.
The “home-field advantage” (if it even exists in baseball) is a non-factor in the F5 money line. There is no desperation attempt from the home team to be leading the game after five innings like there would be after nine.
Let’s back the veteran Morton to better navigate the opposing elite offense on the other side, and take the Braves to be leading after five innings in the first leg of our parlay.
Next, we need some offensive support for Morton and the Braves to get over the hump, so we can bake in a little correlation here.
Stone has no discernible splits to begin his career, so I am not overly concerned about handedness, but backing a switch-hitter guarantees us the platoon advantage throughout the game.
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Enter Ozzie Albies, who has been outstanding this season, with a 154 wRC+ and .394 wOBA. The Braves’ second baseman has recorded at least two total bases in five of six games since returning from a brief stint on the IL. Let’s back him to go over 1.5 total bases for our second leg.
Finally, we are going to back the best hitter in baseball who has been one of the best “Betts” all season.
Mookie Betts leads MLB in standard stats like hits (49) and batting average (.377) and also in advanced stats like wRC+ (215) and wOBA (.478).
Whether you are a traditionalist or an advanced metrics guru, there is no disputing Betts is the best hitter in baseball right now. The fact we can get him over 1.5 total bases at even-money is incredible, no matter the matchup.
Braves vs. Dodgers pick
Same Game Parlay (+750, FanDuel)
- Braves F5 Innings (+136)
- Ozzie Albies over 1.5 total bases (-110)
- Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (+100)