It is never a great sign for the Clippers when their leading scorer is Ivica Zubac, a player who relies on receiving passes in pick-and-rolls and finishing putbacks to be effective on the offensive end of the floor.
Zubac led the Clippers in scoring in Game 5 of the NBA first-round series with the Mavericks, which unsurprisingly meant his team’s star power struggled mightily.
With Kawhi Leonard sitting out another game, Paul George and James Harden combined for just 22 points in the 30-point home loss, one of their worst collective outings in recent memory.
Will George and Harden turn this series around in a do-or-die Game 6, or will Dallas slam the door shut on the Kawhi-less Clippers and send them packing for Cancun?
Clippers vs. Mavericks odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers | +8 (-110) | +260 | o208 (-110) |
| Mavericks | -8 (-110) | -325 | u208 (-110) |
Clippers vs. Mavericks prediction
(9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Mavericks’ defense was impressive in Game 5. The concept of “make other players score” was perfectly executed, with George and Harden falling well short of their averages in the regular season and playoffs.
Harden, in particular, was completely ineffective. He struggled to get clean looks at all three levels of the floor, finishing the game shooting just 2-for-12 in one of his worst outings this season.
Furthermore, he could not cover his poor scoring night at the charity stripe, as he attempted just two free throws.
George was not much better, knocking down only four of his 13 field goal attempts, struggling to gain separation between him and his opponent off the dribble.
L.A.’s offense will go only as far as George and Harden takes it.
The Clippers stand little chance of keeping up with Doncic and Irving if they have to lean on role players to put up significant numbers offensively, especially if Terance Mann (questionable) is forced to sit with a leg injury.
Irving played formidable defense on Harden, but Dallas’s switchability at several positions made the difference. P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green and Dante Exum spent time on an island with Harden and essentially dominated.
In fact, Harden’s only positive impact in Game 5 was in his passes to Zubac.
Ultimately, I’m trusting this Dallas defense to step up again, especially on their home court.
The Mavs have seemingly figured out how to stay down on Harden’s shot fakes, close out on his 3s and navigate ball screens when he is the pick-and-roll ball handler.
The quality of the Mavs’ shots on offense in Game 5 is also promising. Besides the occasional Doncic mid-range fadeaway or floater, they primarily took inside-out 3s and finished around the rim with lobs.
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Doncic looked much healthier in Game 5 from a mobility standpoint and overall health, as he has been battling a knee injury and sickness throughout this series.
I’m comfortable laying 7.5 points with the Mavericks because they have figured out how to get the ball out of George and Harden’s hands.