In a must-win situation, the Orlando Magic will hope that home court continues to hold serve as the series shifts to Orlando for Game 6.
If there’s ever a team that benefits from playing at home, it’s the Orlando Magic. Despite finishing fifth in the conference, only the Boston Celtics had a better home record during the regular season than Orlando.
While the Magic’s offense has looked sluggish throughout the season, there’s a slight improvement when it plays at home.
Thus, bettors shouldn’t shy away from the low total for this game, even with two defensively-minded teams on Friday night.
Cavaliers vs. Magic odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | +3.5 (-110) | +135 | o200.5 (-105) |
| Magic | -3.5 (-110) | -165 | u200.5 (-115) |
Cavaliers analysis
Cleveland hasn’t gotten much going on the road in this series.
According to the NBA’s Advanced Stats, the Cavaliers have the worst offensive (92.5) and defensive (127.3) rating away from home during the first round of the playoffs. If you combine those numbers, you have an abysmal -34.8 net rating.
The Cavaliers have particularly struggled from the perimeter in these away games, shooting just 12-of-51 (23.5%). Cleveland already ranks in the bottom half (17th) of the league in 3-point field goal percentage, and when it’s on the road, it drops to 23rd.
Part of Orlando’s success this season has been its ability to defend the perimeter. It ranks fourth in both opponent 3-point attempts (32.1) and 3-pointers allowed (11.4).
However, the Magic up their game even more at home, allowing the fewest 3-point field goals (10.3) in the league.
Magic analysis
Playing at home certainly has its advantages for a youthful and inexperienced team like the Magic. Any signs of fear are almost brushed aside thanks to the overwhelming energy from the home crowd.
Shooting guard Jalen Suggs was well aware of the impact of the crowd after its Game 3 win.
“It gives you a bit of extra motivation. Some juice. Some more pop in your step,” Suggs told reporters. “So, it was definitely felt, and it was rocking in here today.”
One can also associate the “extra motivation” Suggs refers to with an increase in effort, which is often visible in the stats sheet under the rebounding category, as the Magic hold a 94-61 edge on the glass at home.
Role players also tend to be the biggest beneficiaries of a supportive home crowd. Orlando’s bench averaged 44.5 points through two home playoff games at the Kia Center, shooting 52.2% and 40% from the perimeter vs. 23.0 points on the road with a 35.4% field goal percentage and 22.2% from beyond the arc.
Cavaliers vs. Magic prediction for Game 6
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
While it’s certainly an option to follow the trend here and back the Magic as four-point favorites, I’m much more intrigued by this total, which is available at 200 (DraftKings).
As good as Orlando has been defensively, that is still the lowest total in any of its games this season; the previous low was 201.5.
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In the modern era, with perimeter shooting playing a more prominent role, it’s rare to see a total this low.
This season, the total is 3-1 to the over in games with an opening total of 202 or fewer points. With a total as low as 200, the over is worth a look, even if it’s on principle alone.