Betting on specific horses is usually going to be the main wager on Derby Day, but when it comes to the Kentucky Derby – the biggest horse racing and betting day of the year – there are plenty of other bets available.
Whether you want to wager on the winning margin or pace of the race, there’s a bet for you out there.
Here are some of my favorite prop bets for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
2024 Kentucky Derby prop bets
Wire-to-wire finish: Yes (+400), No (-700)
Betting “yes” on this prop is only worth playing if you’re interested in sticking with the chalk and taking one of the two heavily favored horses, Sierra Leone and Fierceness.
Those two colts stand out from the field in so many ways, and it’s overwhelmingly likely that one of the two leads at some point, even if not in the end; expect any potential upset bid to come via a late surge.
Even if you’re of the belief that it’s a two-horse race, there’s probably only one that can stay ahead of the pack for the entire race, and that’s; Fierceness.
This colt is known for his impressive burst, so his route to beating out the field, namely Sierra Leone, is to build a lead and hang on.
If you’re backing Sierra Leone, hailed as a fantastic closer, your route to victory is a well-calculated final push, not a full two minutes of dominance.
Margin of victory: ½ to ¾ length (+800), neck (+1400)
This is a slightly dicey one as there’s a bit of subjectivity, so we’re going to grab two options, each of which can be a play much smaller than a unit due to the long odds.
Essentially, the idea here is to bet on a result that comes down to less than a length, but not quite as outrageously close as a dead heat or a nose.
In an era where there are few extremely close finishes, why are we backing exactly that to happen?
First, the odds for the top two horses are so close, but that doesn’t always translate to a proportionally close race. It’s the contrasting styles of the two top contenders that makes this play worthwhile.
Fierceness will most likely hop out to a lead, and we’ll wait to see if he’s able to just hang on or if Sierra Leone’s comeback bid will be a success. Either way, expect this one to come down to the wire.
Time of first quarter mile: Under 22.8 seconds (-110), Under 22.8 seconds (-120)
This line is set due in part to the very real possibility of sloppy conditions on a rainy Saturday in Louisville. That being said, six of the past eight Derbys have come in below this number, including the unbelievably rainy 2018 edition.
The outrageously speedy Fierceness is expected to lead the way, and he’s done well in tough conditions before.
Expect yet another quick start to the Derby this year.
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Best prop bet for the Kentucky Derby
If you are planning on betting on Fierceness to win, the gate-to-wire prop is a good one to sprinkle a bit of money on, but if your pick is any other horse, just stay away; the odds on the “no” option are simply far too short.
The margin-of-victory wager is a good one for bettors seeking a big payday, but it’s extremely risky; you can be conceptually right that the race will be a close one, but the margin can be a head instead of a neck, or a length instead of ¾, and the wager is lost.
The best one-size-fits-all prop for this Derby, regardless of your favorite horse or betting philosophy, is the quarter-mile under. Even if Fierceness can’t finish the race, he should come out of the gate extremely strong and cash this wager.