How the next three days could decide Rishi Sunak's fate: Voting opens to pick hundreds of councillors, mayors, and police and crime commissioners - everything you need to know about the 'dress rehearsal' for a general election
Voting is underway in local elections that could decide the fate of Rishi Sunak and provide more than a hint of how the Tories will fare at the general election later this year.
Every voter in England and Wales will be able to cast a ballot in at least one type of election before 10pm today.
More than 2,600 council seats in England are up for grabs across 107 authorities, many of which were last fought in 2021, a year in which the Conservatives did particularly well in local elections.
But now the Tories are languishing at their lowest ratings under Mr Sunak's premiership, with rebel backbenchers reportedly readying to move against him if the party loses too many seats.
A total of 11 mayoral contests are also taking place, including for the London mayoralty between frontrunners, Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan and Tory challenger Susan Hall.
Forecasts have consistently put Mr Khan ahead of Ms Hall, with a poll published on Wednesday by Savanta giving him a 10-point advantage after his lead tapered over the campaign.
Both main parties have sought to manage expectations ahead of polling day, with Mr Hunt insisting governments can get 'punished' in local votes.
Conservative mayors Andy Street in the West Midlands, and Tees Valley's Ben Houchen are also facing key re-election battles, with polls suggesting narrow contests with their Labour opponents.
The result of the Blackpool South by-election is also likely to be declared halfway through the night, with Labour tipped to gain this marginal seat from the Conservatives, in what would be the Tories' 11th such defeat so far this parliament.
How these votes pan out over the next few days will set the scene for a turbulent six months of politics in the second half of 2024.
Rishi Sunak canvassing in Chelsea with his wife Akshata Murty this morning as the country heads to the polls
Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria arrived at a polling station in London this morning to cast theirvotes
The results of these elections are being declared over several days, starting in the early hours of tomorrow morning and ending on Sunday.
There are 107 councils holding elections in England, with around a third (35) currently expected to declare overnight tonight, nearly two thirds (68) expected to declare during the day on May 3, with three due on May 4 and one on May 5.
The results of four of the 11 mayoral contests (East Midlands, North East, Tees Valley and York & North Yorkshire) will be declared during the day on May 3, while the rest - including London and the West Midlands - will be declared on May 4.
READ MORE: Labour's Wes Streeting says Tory victory in London mayoral election is 'a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes'
Of the results for the 37 police & crime commissioner elections across England and Wales, three will be declared on the night of May 2, 24 will be declared during the day on May 3, eight will be declared on May 4 and two will be declared on May 5.
Results of the London Assembly election will be declared on the afternoon of May 4, but exact timings for all the constituencies are currently unavailable.
Forecasts suggest the Tories could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt saying the party expects to suffer 'significant losses'.
Elections guru Sir John Curtice has said it is 'nonsense' to suggest victories for Andy Street or Ben Houchen indicate wider popularity for the Tories, but the Conservatives will try to use successes for either mayor to 'cover whatever disasters happen elsewhere'.
The political scientist told an Institute for Government (IfG) event: 'Because of the personal votes of these two, (these contests are) going to be the least reliable indicator.
'Whereas the elections for the councillor of whom nobody has ever heard of, in Tunbridge Wells or wherever, is going to be a much more reliable guide because these persons will have much less in the way of personal appeal.
'The Conservative Party is doing this because they think they might manage to win the contest and therefore they'll be able to cover whatever disasters happen elsewhere.
'Equally, conversely here in London, Sadiq Khan will not do as well as the Labour Party would do in a general election because Sadiq has a negative personal vote. But this city is now so strong Labour, he's going to win anyway.'
Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed voted in London this morning
Forecasts have consistently put Mr Khan ahead of Susan Hall, with a poll published on Wednesday by Savanta giving him a 10-point advantage after his lead tapered over the campaign
Enzo the dog waits at a polling station in London
Penny Mordaunt today flatly denied plotting to oust Rishi Sunak today as a dire poll showed Tory support under the low point of Liz Truss.
Research by YouGov put the party on just 18 per cent - the worst the firm has recorded since 2019.
Worryingly for Conservatives, as well as trailing Labour by 26 points they are just three points ahead of Reform UK.
Yesterday, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch insisted that the Prime Minister was safe regardless of the outcome of the local elections.
She told Sky News: 'I think there's a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention but the Prime Minister has the full backing of the Cabinet, he has my full backing.'
Research by YouGov put the party on just 18 per cent - the worst the firm has recorded since 2019
Asked whether that would be the case even if the Conservatives suffered a drubbing on Thursday, Ms Badenoch said: 'I think that is right.'
The Prime Minister's press secretary did not deny a Bloomberg report that Mr Sunak told Tory staff that they could be part of the 'greatest comeback in history', in an admission of the scale of the challenge he faces.
The press secretary said: 'There is no doubt that we have work to do. It's obviously been a really tough time for the country with Covid and Ukraine and the impact of that on inflation.
'But... I can look back at the last week, we've done a massive defence announcement which Labour have not matched, which means that our country would be at risk under Labour.
'We've done a massive welfare intervention to address the unsustainable rise in the welfare bill. And we are clearly making some progress on tackling illegal immigration.'
