The Mets finish a four-game series with the Cubs on Thursday afternoon in Queens.
Unfortunately for the home team, starting pitcher Adrian Houser toes the rubber, and his early-season results don’t indicate we should be hopeful.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s starting a young pitcher with loads of upside – upside worth wagering on in his young career.
Cubs vs. Mets odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -105 | -1.5 (+160) | o8.5 (-102) |
| Mets | -115 | +1.5 (-192) | u8.5 (-118) |
Cubs vs. Mets Prediction
(1:10 p.m. ET, SNY)
Houser has issued more free passes (16) than strikeouts (14) across his first 23 innings, and he’s on pace for a career-worst batted-ball profile (93 mph average exit velocity, second percentile; 10% barrel rate, 11th percentile).
He lacks pure stuff, so he’s dependent on pinpoint location and ability to induce weak contact. But he’s struggling in both areas, with his Location+ metric dropping five points year over year (103 to 98) and his ground-ball rate dropping six percentage points (47% to 41%).
Houser won’t post an ERA north of eight for an entire season, but his expected ERA and FIP sit above six, so he shouldn’t be projected any better than a replacement-level starting pitcher.
Conversely, Cubs starting pitcher Ben Brown is a fascinating prospect.
Brown has three plus pitches, capitalized with an upper-90s fastball and a knuckle curve with disgusting dropping action – the latter has a 132 Stuff+ mark and a 40% whiff rate.
He’s used this arsenal to obliterate the minors, striking out 35% of batters on his rise from High-A to Triple-A.
His command and batted-ball profile leave much to be desired, as does his overall statistical profile (4.30 ERA, 5.76 expected ERA).
However, I believe some of his numbers are inflated by two tough outings – a six-run blowup relief appearance on opening day against Texas and a three-run, seven-hit performance last week in the noted pitcher’s park that is Fenway.
Between those two outlier performances, Brown made five starting and relief appearances, allowing two runs on nine hits across 17 â…” innings, striking out 17 and walking four.
He’s shown a concerted effort to locate better, leading to a low-3.00s FIP and mid-3.00s expected FIP.
He’s been vital in Chicago’s ascension toward the top of the NL Central.
Expect some more excellent outings shortly, and I’m betting he pieces one together against the Mets, who boast merely an average lineup against right-handed pitching (100 wRC+).
Chicago’s bats have cooled off significantly, but that’s mainly because the Cubs are making poor swing decisions, boasting a 30% chase rate and 14% swinging strike rate over the past two weeks.
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Cubs vs. Mets pick
Considering Houser can’t miss bats, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs get back on track.
The Mets have a monster bullpen advantage over the Cubs, so I’d rather avoid any late-game mishaps and bet directly on Brown against Houser.
Therefore, I’ll take the Cubs on the first-half moneyline..