Kenyan forces are about to land in Haiti — with nowhere clear to stay

With help from Lara Seligman

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Kenya is expected to begin deploying forces to Haiti in late May, and a U.S.-constructed base won’t be ready for them, three people familiar with the talks told NatSec Daily.

Now that Haiti has a transitional government in place, the U.S. believes some of the Kenyan forces promised to help secure the embattled country and quell violent gangs will start deploying by May 23, said JAKE JOHNSTON, an analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research who often talks with government officials and lawmakers. Two other people, granted anonymity to discuss private discussions, confirmed the deployment date to NatSec Daily.

That would coincide with Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO’s visit to Washington. The deployment would likely be touted as a big win for the bilateral relationship: The mission has been stalled for months due to legal battles in Kenya and Republican lawmakers blocking funds for the deployment, since the U.S.-supported plan offers few details on how the security forces will succeed in their battle.

It’s expected to be a somewhat small group, up to 200 personnel, Johnston also told NatSec Daily. And that number of forces is very unlikely to quell the violent gangs wreaking havoc on Haiti.

When the first forces step foot in Haiti, they also might not have a place to go. The Defense Department hasn’t finished construction on a facility in Haiti that would house the security forces, Johnston and the others said.

The Pentagon pledged to build a base and medical facility, “but that has yet to happen,” Johnston said. “Without the infrastructure, it’s unclear how any sort of larger-scale deployment would be feasible.”

It’s unclear where else Kenyan forces would be housed. The National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department did not respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.

Due to the thorny history of U.S. intervention in Haiti, Washington has struggled to devise a plan that would likely stabilize the country and allow for free and fair elections to be held, while also satisfying Haitians who don’t want foreign troops to contribute to the ongoing violence.

One of the main critiques of the U.S.-backed plan is it doesn’t explicitly say Kenyan or Beninese forces can use force to quell the gangs if they need to. Even so, the State Department says it should be expected that they will.

“That is not actively planned,” a U.N. official, granted anonymity to discuss the administration’s thinking, told NatSec Daily. “But they do have the mandate to do so, should they need it … to both protect themselves, but more importantly, to protect civilians.”

The Inbox

PROBING ISRAEL’S ACTIONS: A group of lawyers is calling on President JOE BIDEN to halt military aid to Israel, arguing that its actions in Gaza do not comply with U.S. and international humanitarian law, our own JOSEPH GEDEON scoops.

The lawyers, including at least 20 that work in the Biden administration, plan to send a letter arguing their case to Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND and general counsels across the administration in the coming days. In the letter, the lawyers contend that Israel likely violated U.S. statutes including the Arms Export Control Act and Leahy Laws as well as the Geneva Conventions prohibiting disproportionate attacks on civilian populations.

So far, more than 90 lawyers have signed onto the letter that’s still collecting signatures. The dissent comes at a key moment: The White House faces a May 8 deadline to certify to Congress that Israel’s military actions involving American-supplied weapons adhere to U.S. or international law, and the letter could make it harder for the U.S. to prove that it hasn’t.

HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE: Israel is open to a deal that involves Hamas releasing 33 hostages during the first phase of a truce, fewer than it had previously demanded, three Israeli officials told The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY and ADAM RASGON.

For months, Israel wanted the militant group to release 40 hostages, a group composed of women, elderly and seriously ill people. A reason for the change in number is because Israel believes some of the 40 hostages have died, one of the officials said.

It’s the strongest indication yet that Israel and Hamas may be inching toward a ceasefire deal. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN spoke with Saudi Arabian officials today about the potential deal, urging Hamas to agree to the “extraordinarily generous” offer from Israel. His trip comes a day after Biden and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU spoke on the phone for nearly an hour.

Egyptian Foreign Minister SAMEH SHOUKRY said today that he’s “hopeful” about the latest proposal: “The proposal has taken into account the positions of both sides … we are waiting to have a final decision,” he said, per Reuters.

The latest bump in the road: The U.S. and its allies are concerned that the deal could be complicated if the International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Israeli officials, as Israel believes may happen, Bloomberg News’ JENNIFER JACOBS, ALBERTO NARDELLI and ALEX WICKHAM report.

Negotiators are also hoping a deal comes before an Israeli invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where some 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering. That took on renewed urgency today, as Israeli airstrikes on three houses killed at least 25 Palestinians in the city, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports.

INDIA’S LONG ARM: India’s intelligence service pursued an assassination attempt against a prominent Sikh activist and opponent of Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI on American soil during his state visit last year, The Washington Post’s GREG MILLER, GERRY SHIH and ELLEN NAKASHIMA report.

The plot came days after an earlier, successful, attempt to kill a Sikh separatist leader living in Canada which caused a major diplomatic rift between Ottawa and New Delhi over the Modi government’s involvement. It also came as the White House rolled out the red carpet for the Indian leader that week with a glamorous state visit. Washington has looked to shore up ties with India, which it sees as a critical partner in Asia that can serve as a counterweight to China’s rising military and economic prominence.

UKRAINE FALLS BACK: Ukraine retreated from three villages in Donetsk region amid an intensifying Russian push in the region, refreshing concerns over how quickly Western military assistance will get there.

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today that U.S. weapons began arriving in small amounts, but urged Washington to move faster: “Timely support for our army — today, I don’t see anything positive on this point yet. There are supplies, they have slightly begun, this process needs to be sped up,” he said, per Reuters’ PAVEL POLITYUK.

On Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s army, OLEKSANDR SYRSKYI, said that Kyiv’s forces had “moved to new frontiers west of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka to preserve the lives and health of our troops,” our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Syrskyi cited Ukraine’s dwindling supplies, in the face of the better-equipped Russian forces.

Speaking alongside Zelenskyy today, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said the bloc’s members have failed to live up to their promises on sending aid, emphasizing the ammunition shortage, to Ukraine. “But now I’m confident that things will change,” Stoltenberg said.

ICYMI — Thousands of former Wagner fighters are now answering to Moscow by our own ERIN BANCO

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S 702 BATTLE: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle believe DONALD TRUMP could kill the U.S. spy powers bill if he takes office.

As our own JORDAIN CARNEY and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS report, conservatives hope that in 2026, Trump will be back in the White House and kill the Section 702 government surveillance program. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON shortened the timeline for reauthorization of the United States’ spy power bill from five to two years to appease conservatives.

During the reauthorization debate, Trump came out swinging against the bill, claiming it was used to spy on his presidential campaign. The shorter timeframe “is certainly better, because we’ll get another whack at the kind of reforms that we think we need to have,” House Judiciary Committee Chair Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) told our colleagues.

Connecticut Rep. JIM HIMES, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, acknowledged the potential pitfall of a two-year reauthorization. If Trump is back in the White House and “decides that he doesn’t like the authority,” Himes said, “then we’re in a lot of trouble, right?

ICYMI — Don’t just assume Trump will back Russia, says Polish foreign minister by BILD’s MARION HORN and PAUL RONZHEIMER

Keystrokes

ELECTION MACHINE TROUBLE: Elections experts are calling on the U.S. to steer countries away from using a South Korean company’s voting machines after they caused widespread reporting issues in recent elections in Iraq and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, our friends at Weekly Cyber report.

The U.S. does not provide funding to the company — Miru Systems — as part of its efforts to promote free and fair elections around the world. But recent incidents, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes, have prompted some experts and observers to call on the U.S, and the U.S. Agency for International Development in particular, to steer countries away from using Miru software.

“Rigorous review of commercial election technology and how it is procured is urgently needed in every democracy. Vendors like Miru need to prove their trustworthiness, and we are failing to demand that of them,” an official at a democracy NGO supported by the U.S. government told Daniel.

Miru argues it cannot be blamed for misuse of its systems. “We only provide devices that, when adequately used, provide expected results,” Miru said in a statement. “Blaming Miru for the responsibilities of electoral management bodies is like blaming the manufacturer of a knife for someone who gets injured by improper use of this knife.”

The Complex

PIER PRESSURE: The Pentagon’s cost estimate to build a floating pier off the coast of Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid is $320 million, Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters on Monday, LARA SELIGMAN writes in.

The comments confirm Reuters’ report, which also revealed that the cost estimate doubled from initial estimates earlier this year. U.S. military personnel began construction on the temporary pier on Friday and expect to complete the project by early May.

GOVERNORS UNITE AGAINST DOD: Nearly all U.S. governors oppose the Biden administration’s push to move space units from the Air National Guard to the Space Force, signaling widespread resistance to the plan outside of Washington, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

In March, Connor scooped that the Pentagon sent lawmakers a proposal to allow the Air Force to transfer several hundred space missions in the Air National Guard to the Space Force. State executives aired their “strong opposition” in a letter released today by the National Governors Association, arguing the plan undermines their roles as the heads of their state Guard troops.

Florida and Texas were the only states whose governors didn’t sign the missive, which was sent to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. Governors of five U.S. territories also signed on, bringing the total to 53 leaders.

RUTTE GETS A BOOST: Turkey is backing Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE’s bid to lead NATO, according to The Associated Press’ SUZAN FRASER. The move comes as a major coup for the Dutch leader, seen by his colleagues as a “Trump whisperer” suited for the possible challenge of leading the alliance during a second Trump presidency.

On the Hill

FUTURE OF UKRAINE AID: Several conservative lawmakers bashed the Biden administration after Zelenskyy said Ukraine is working with the U.S. on a security agreement that would fix levels of assistance for the next decade.

That assistance would include “armed support, financial, political and joint arms production,” Zelenskyy said in a statement on Sunday. After the monthslong battle over Ukraine aid in Congress, several lawmakers weren’t thrilled to hear about the long-term plan.

“The DC Cartel wants to lock us into ten more years of bankrolling one of the most corrupt nations in the world. No more,” Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz) said in a post on X. Other lawmakers who spoke out include Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kansas), Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah), Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) and Rep. KEITH SELF (R-Texas).

But Zelenskyy’s note about the security agreement actually stems from a G7 joint declaration of support announced in July 2023. The U.S. will not commit to any dollar amount to the agreement, and negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine are ongoing.

Broadsides

CURBING KREMLIN CRYPTO: Washington needs to do more to stop Russia from using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions, Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and Marshall wrote in a letter today.

In early April, The Wall Street Journal wrote about how the stablecoin Tether has become “indispensable” to Russia’s military industrial base. While Treasury has sanctioned Moscow’s main trading platforms, the Kremlin has been able to skirt the sanctions using cryptocurrency and pay China millions in crypto to produce high-tech weapons.

“The national security threat posed by cryptocurrency requires a commensurate response by our country’s defense community,” the senators wrote in a letter to top administration officials, including DefSec Austin, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.

Transitions

— Scottish leader HUMZA YOUSAF resigned today ahead of an expected no-confidence vote. Our European colleagues made a list of who could replace him.

— CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN will be sworn in as chair of the U.S. African Development Foundation on Tuesday. Moseley Braun was the first Black woman elected to the Senate and served as ambassador to Samoa and New Zealand during the Clinton administration.

— RAND has named MIYEON OH as their new Korea policy chair. She previously led Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center.

What to Read

— MACKENZIE EAGLEN, American Enterprise Institute: Keeping up with the pacing threat: unveiling the true size of Beijing’s military spending

— MAX LAMPARTH and JACQUELYN SCHNEIDER, Foreign Affairs: Why the military can’t trust AI

— DMITRI ALPEROVITCH, The Washington Post: How the right U.S. chip strategy can keep Taiwan free

Tomorrow Today

— Center for a New American Security, 9 a.m.: Beyond China’s black box: trends shaping China’s foreign and security policy decision-making under Xi Jinping

— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Northern Europe, NATO, and the war in Ukraine

— United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: The trajectory of India-Russia ties amid the war in Ukraine

— Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 10 a.m.: Factories and fraud in the PRC: how human rights violations make reliable audits impossible

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Roundtable - Americans detained abroad

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of defense FY2025 budget request

— House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the national guard and reserves forces

— Senate Finance Committee, 10 a.m.: Hacking America’s health care: assessing the Change healthcare cyber attack and what’s next

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Strengthening U.S. critical minerals security

— National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 11 a.m.: A U.S.-Yemen case study in safeguarding antiquities and cultural heritage amidst conflict

— Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1 p.m.: “Bringing peace to a troubled world,” focusing on “current challenges of war, global food insecurity, and conflict management”

— Washington Post Live, 2 p.m.: A book discussion on “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century”

— Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, 2:30 p.m.: Chinese money laundering organizations: cleaning cartel cash

— Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: U.S. policy on Taiwan

— House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee, 3 p.m.: FY2025 budget request for military readiness

— Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: A book discussion on “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century”

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose edits are bad for the United States.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who fixes all her mistakes.