The Yankees and Orioles should spend every day of the 2024 MLB season competing for AL East supremacy.
These head-to-head matchups are crucial for deciding who eventually wins the war.
Technically, the 19-11 Yanks and the 18-10 O’s are tied for first place in the division entering Tuesday’s matchup at Camden Yards.
The O’s won the first of 13 matchups yesterday, winning 2-0 behind 5 ⅔ shutout innings from Grayson Rodriguez.
I expect New York starting pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. to be the hero in game two.
And I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.
Yankees vs. Orioles odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+135) | -120 | o9.5 (+105) |
| Orioles | +1.5 (-160) | +100 | u9.5 (-120) |
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction
(6:35 p.m. ET, YES)
“Nasty Nestor” had an uncharacteristic, un-nasty 2023 season, pitching to an ERA and expected FIP near 5.00.
However, he was hamstrung by injuries, making just 12 half-healthy starts.
Now that Cortes is healthy, he’s starting to produce closer to his 2021-2022 seasons, where he generated 5.2 WAR across 250 innings.
His Stuff metrics are improving, posting a Stuff+ mark over the league-average 100 in consecutive starts.
And he’s shown an impressive improvement in command and control, walking only 3.5% of batters, about half his career average – he’s walked only one batter across his past four starts, pitching a whopping 26 innings during the stretch.
Cortes is an interesting case study because he’s a soft-contact, fly-ball pitcher.
He’s a soft-tossing, fastball-heavy lefty, but his four-seam has plenty of carry and ride (18.7 iVB, 91st percentile), meaning hitters constantly swing underneath the pitch, which he locates mainly toward the upper half of the zone.
Of note, the Orioles have drawn the fewest walks against four-seam fastballs this season (6.9% on 321 PAs).
This could be a good matchup for Cortes, who has a perfect 4-0 record and a career 1.99 ERA against Baltimore.
However, he’s also able to produce a surprising number of chases with his four-seam/cutter mix, generating a well-above-average 30% chase rate.
I’m honestly unsure why hitters chase these low-velocity fastballs, but they do.
Regardless, Cortes boasts an ERA north of 3.50, but his expected ERA is closer to 2.53, a good indicator of how much weak contact he’s inducing.
Meanwhile, Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer has lost some velocity over his past few outings. His four-seam fastball checked in at only 92.6 mph in his last start, about two ticks below his average.
That’s resulted in a drastic decrease in his Stuff metrics, which has brought about tougher times. Kremer’s allowed 11 earned runs over his past 15 innings, going 1-2 against the Brewers, Royals and Angels.
Ultimately, I’ll happily bet on the surging Cortes against the declining Kremer.
Additionally, the Yankees have a monster bullpen advantage Tuesday.
Baltimore closer Craig Kimbrel is dealing with back tightness, while high-leverage relievers Jennifer Cano and Danny Coulombe have each pitched on consecutive days.
No matter the situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if all three are unavailable for the game.
Even when the O’s bullpen is fully rested, it hasn’t been the most impressive group lately.
They’ve pitched to a 4.81 ERA and an 11% walk rate while allowing an 11% barrel rate over the past two weeks, all bottom-five marks among MLB relief corps during the stretch.
Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen is mostly rested, and its ERA over the past two weeks (3.02) ranks 10th among MLB relief corps.
Closer Clay Holmes has yet to allow a run in 14 innings, posting 13 strikeouts to only one walk.
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It’s also worth mentioning that New York has a crucial defensive advantage, ranking fourth among MLB fielding units in Defensive Runs Saved this year (18), while Baltimore ranks 13th (three).
These offenses are relatively comparable, and the Orioles smash southpaws, but the Yankees have a monstrous run-prevention advantage across all nine innings Tuesday.
As a result, I’m backing the Yanks to pull out a road victory and even the series.
Yankees vs. Orioles pick
Yankees ML (-120, Bet365)