The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals square off on Friday night to begin a three-game set at Citi Field.
Both teams got off to horrendous starts this season, but one team in particular seems to be headed in the right direction.
The Mets are 13-11 through the first month, but they are 7-3 over their last 10 games, and that includes taking two of three from the World Series-favorite Dodgers (+350, DraftKings) in Los Angeles.
Friday’s matchup offers us an opportunity to cash in on a two-leg parlay.
Cardinals vs. Mets odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +114 | +1.5 (-192) | o7.5 (-115) |
| Mets | -135 | -1.5 (+160) | u7.5 (-105) |
Cardinals vs. Mets prediction & pick
The bullpen is a strong suit for the Mets, as they have been lights out with a 2.95 ERA, 3.10 SIERA and the third-best strikeout rate (29.4%) among all MLB bullpens.
The Mets’ offense has posted an above-average 106 wRC+ despite most of their hitters outside of underperforming expectations so far this season. Pete Alsono (.263/.340/.516) has been the exception.
In even better news for the Mets, late off-season addition J.D. Martinez is expected to make his 2024 debut on Friday.
Martinez posted a 135 wRC+ for the Dodgers last season, and he has predictably raked in his five-game minor league ramp-up assignment.
The righty slugger should provide an immediate boost to an already formidable lineup.
I like the Mets to win this game outright at home, but we are going to allow a bit of a buffer in this parlay and take their alternate run line at +1.5 for our first leg.
The Cardinals bullpen, like the Mets ‘pen, has been outstanding this season, but veteran righty Miles Mikolas will get the start on Friday.
Mikolas has been in steady decline since the 2022 season, when he posted a 3.29 ERA. He has always been a well-below average strikeout pitcher, never posting a K-rate above 19% in his career.
The biggest beneficiary of this pitching matchup might be Alonso, who could provide some of the damage that sinks both the Cardinals and Mikolas.
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Alonso owns an elite .284 ISO and .358 wOBA since the beginning of last season when facing right-handed pitching.
He has a below-average 22.4% strikeout rate, and that should be even less of a concern against Mikolas.
Alonso has a great chance to make solid contact in three at-bats against Mikolas, helping us cash this two-leg parlay.