- + The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025—A new survey shows generative AI usage continues to grow. In the past 12 months, the overall adoption rate rose 10 percentage points to 54.6% of adult...
- + Navigating in the Dark: Using High-Frequency Private Data to Track the Labor Market—High-frequency data sources like Homebase offer a real-time look at trends in the U.S. labor market, which is very valuable when official data are una...
- + Banking Analytics: Unrealized Losses Decrease Again at U.S. Banks—Unrealized losses as a percentage of total securities at U.S. banks fell again in the second quarter of 2025, though they remain a risk for some insti...
- + Banking Analytics: Understanding Credit Risk with the Texas Ratio—Developed in the 1980s during the Texas banking crisis, the Texas ratio offers an indicator of a bank’s health by measuring the institution’s troubled...
- + The Role of Single-Family Rentals in the U.S. Housing Market—More single-family homes are being bought by investors to rent out. An analysis examines how this affects renters, home values and the U.S. housing ma...
- + Is the U.S. in an Above-Target Inflation Regime?—Though U.S. inflation has fallen sharply since mid-2022, this analysis finds that above-rate inflation remains persistent and broad.
- + How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025—A model suggests that although tariffs have been only partially passed through to consumers, they already have exerted measurable pressure on prices.
- + Are U.S. Treasuries Still “Convenient”?—The convenience yield reflects the value that investors place on the liquidity and safety of U.S. Treasuries. Three different measures indicate this y...
- + Understanding the “Swoosh”-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries—An analysis of the yield curve for Treasuries suggests that while the market sees a gradual decline in short-term interest rates, it also expects rate...
- + Banking Analytics: Modifications to Commercial Real Estate Loans Rise—As of June 30, the amount of commercial real estate loans whose lending terms were modified by U.S. banks had risen 66% over the past year.
- + How Common Are Monthly Payroll Job Losses during Business Expansions?—This analysis of the frequency of monthly job losses during U.S. economic expansions finds periodic declines in payroll employment are a regular occur...
- + What Causes “Jumps” in Stock Prices?—An analysis examines which types of macroeconomic announcements tend to be most often associated with jumps in U.S. stock prices.
- + How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared—What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contri...
- + Small Business Lending Trends and Banking Deserts, 2019-23—Explore evolving trends in small business lending, the impact of banking deserts and the shifting preferences of small firms toward larger banks.
- + Aggregate Implications of the Rise in Firms’ Custom Software Investments—U.S. firms’ investment in custom software has risen markedly. This analysis examines its effect on aggregate outcomes like sales concentration and pro...
- + Flash Report: August Jobless Rate Rises as Employment Conditions Soften Further—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected August’s jobless rate, which rose to 4....
- + Where Developing Nations Prone to Transnational Terrorism Stand in Foreign Aid and FDI—A study examines how numbers of transnational terrorism incidents in 25 developing economies align with inflows of foreign aid and foreign direct inve...
- + Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates—As a result of lower projected growth in net immigration, the U.S. economy may need to create fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable this yea...
- + Is AI Contributing to Rising Unemployment? Evidence from Occupational Variation—Is AI driving job displacement? This analysis compares jobs’ theoretical AI exposure and actual AI adoption with changes in occupation-level unemploym...
- + Recent College Grads Bear Brunt of Labor Market Shifts—This year, young college graduates between ages 23 and 27 are experiencing jobless rates that are notably higher than the rates seen before the pandem...
- + How Changes in Trade Partners Have Affected U.S. Import Prices—Expansion of sourcing from China in the 2000s helped contain U.S. import price growth. More recent shifts away from China have begun reversing that ef...
- + How Have U.S. Workers Fared in a Labor Market Reshaped by the Pandemic?—Shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic led to an exceptionally tight U.S. labor market from 2022 to mid-2024. Did all workers benefit from these conditions...
- + China’s Role in Global Innovation Is Changing—This blog post looks at China’s transition from technology absorber to innovation leader and exporter of technologies in sectors dominated by advanced...
- + The Sluggish Renaissance of U.S. Manufacturing—An analysis examines which subindustries and geographies have contributed the most to growth in U.S. manufacturing employment and establishments since...
- + Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries—Differences in the structure of mortgages, specifically fixed rate versus variable rate, can explain the divergence in house price trends among develo...
- + Home Values after a Tornado: What Can St. Louis Learn from Little Rock’s 2023 Experience?—Undamaged houses near the path of a 2023 tornado that struck Little Rock saw a sharp, short-term drop in prices, but this effect lasted less than a ye...
- + Flash Report: July’s Jobless Rate Rises on Softening Employment Conditions—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected July’s jobless rate, which ticked up to...
- + The Use of AI in the Health Care Workplace: The Experience in Eighth District States—An analysis of a hospital survey finds that AI adoption varies greatly by geography. The variations are notable both between metro and rural areas and...
- + Firms’ Wage-Setting Power: A New Take on Monopsony in the Labor Market—Why do some firms seem to pay workers less than what their labor is worth? An economic model gives insights into how wage-setting power arises in mode...
- + The Use of AI in the Health Care Workplace: The U.S. Experience—An analysis of a national hospital survey finds that AI adoption varies greatly by geography, particularly for rural hospitals not located near a metr...
- + U.S. Retirement Normalization following the COVID-19 Pandemic—After surging when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S., retirements have returned to their prepandemic trend. New research examines what caused th...
- + Do Workforce Barriers Differ among Eighth District States?—An analysis of census data among Eighth District states finds that the main reasons given by adults for their inability to join the workforce differed...
- + Flash Report: June’s Unemployment Rate Falls as More People Find Jobs—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected June’s jobless rate, which ticked lower...
- + Family Care, Health Issues Remain Top Workforce Barriers—An analysis of census data finds that the main reasons given by U.S. adults for their inability to join the workforce last year were family responsibi...
- + Banking Analytics: The Growing Connection between Bank and Nonbank Sectors—U.S. banks have steadily increased lending to nondepository financial institutions, such as mortgage firms and insurers, in recent years. What is the ...
- + Economic Sentiment and the Role of the Labor Market—An analysis looks at labor share, wages and price growth during recent economic expansions to understand U.S. consumer sentiment since COVID-19.
- + Financial Market Volatility in the Spring of 2025—In April 2025, U.S. financial markets experienced a sharp, temporary rise in volatility. How did this level of volatility compare with the levels seen...
- + Exploring Trends in Community Development Consumer Lending—Consumer loans make up the largest part of community development financial institution (CDFI) financing. How does this lending differ in the Eighth Di...
- + Banking Analytics: Net Interest Margins Rise at U.S. Banks—Net interest margins at U.S. banks continued to increase in the first quarter of 2025 after rising steadily throughout 2024.
- + Flash Report: May Unemployment Flows Suggest Some Labor Market Weakening—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of employment and the labor force affected May’s jobless rate, which stayed at 4.2%.
- + Economic Sentiment and Indicators of Household Financial Wellness—An analysis looks at inflation, household income and consumer debt during recent economic expansions to understand U.S. consumer sentiment since COVID...
- + Unemployment Insurance Eligibility and Benefits: An Analysis of Rules across U.S. States and Time—Using a unique database, this analysis finds large variations among U.S. states’ rules governing eligibility and benefits for unemployment insurance.
- + Who Trades More with China than with the U.S.?—In 2002, many countries around the world traded more with the U.S. than they did with China. An analysis shows this tally had reversed by 2022.
- + Making Sense of Recession Probabilities—While recession probabilities can provide a snapshot of current economic conditions, relying on them to judge whether a recession is underway can be r...
- + What Have We Learned from the U.S. Tariff Increases of 2018-19?—An analysis of the 2018-19 tariff hikes on Chinese imports suggests they affected import patterns and prices of the kind of goods subject to the dutie...
- + Banking Analytics: Understanding the Composition of Bank Loan Portfolios—In the fourth quarter of 2024, commercial real estate loans represented a quarter of U.S. banks’ loan portfolios. What other types of loans did these ...
- + Understanding the Net International Investment Position—The U.S. NIIP is the difference between U.S.-owned foreign assets and foreign-owned U.S. assets. Why has the NIIP become more negative in recent years...
- + Industry-Level Growth, AI Use and the U.S. Postpandemic Recovery—Industries with higher percentages of college-educated workers and those with more prevalent AI use tended to see higher productivity growth in recent...
- + Banking Analytics: Commercial Real Estate Loan Growth Slows to 11-Year Low—An analysis of call report data shows that quarterly growth in commercial real estate loan volumes at U.S. banks slowed throughout 2024.
- + The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited—The share of Americans late on credit card payments and the share of debt that’s past due continue rising widely, but growth in delinquency rates has ...
- + The Economics of Child Care: A State-Level Analysis—An analysis examines data on the cost of child care for U.S. households, labor force participation among parents and child care workers’ wages by stat...
- + Top 25 Developing Nations with Terrorism Incidents—How did developing economies with the largest number of terrorism incidents from 2000 to mid-2021 track in terms of per capita incomes and political r...
- + Supply, Demand and the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge—A new method of tracking the prices and quantities of U.S. consumer expenditures provides insights into the 2021-22 surge in prices.
- + What’s Driving the Surge in U.S. Corporate Profits?—Nonfinancial industries, primarily retail and wholesale trade and construction, drove a recent rise in U.S. corporate profits as a share of national i...
- + A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels—After a decline in the 1990s, the number of federal workers was relatively stable before rising in recent years. However, the levels have changed subs...
- + Breakeven Employment Growth: A Simple but Useful Benchmark—This post defines “breakeven employment growth” and explains how it can help people understand the significance of the monthly payroll jobs number.
- + Nontariff Trade Barriers in the U.S. and EU—An analysis examines the prevalence and types of nontariff measures that affect trade, such as technical and safety regulations, in the U.S. and EU.
- + Uncertainty Shocks Can Trigger Recessionary Conditions—Using an economic model, this analysis takes a popular measure of economic policy uncertainty and looks at how large increases in uncertainty can affe...
- + Flash Report: March Unemployment Flows Suggest a Stable Labor Market—An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of employment and the labor force affected March’s jobless rate, which rose slightly...
- + From Partner to Rival: Understanding China’s Technological Rise through Patent Data—A new measure of patent similarity shows China shifting its international patents toward technology-intensive industries traditionally dominated by de...
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