- + Bank Reserves since the Start of Quantitative Tightening—The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet since mid-2022, which also trims the overall level of bank reserves. What other factors might be affecting...
- + Has the Growth in the Price of Education Outpaced Overall Inflation?—Historically, the price of education, such as for tuition and books, has risen faster than overall inflation. But that hasn’t been the case in recent ...
- + How the Big Mac Index Relates to Overall Consumer Inflation—Big Mac inflation appears to track CPI inflation, but its path can diverge from overall U.S. inflation because of price deviations relative to other i...
- + Commercial Real Estate Exposure and Bank Stock Returns—An analysis suggests that commercial real estate exposures may have been a relevant driver of bank holding company stock returns in 2023.
- + AI and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Historical Developments in Other Technologies—An analysis of the diffusion of PCs, smart devices, cloud computing and 3D printing suggests that AI may spread in a pattern similar to that of cloud ...
- + Eighth District Businesses Report Moderating Inflationary Pressures—A recent survey of firms in the Eighth District suggests that consumer price growth is expected to keep slowing in 2024, though most firms also report...
- + Eighth District Businesses Report Moderating Inflationary Pressures—A recent survey of firms in the Eighth District suggests that consumer price growth is expected to keep slowing in 2024, though most firms also report...
- + The Gender Wealth Gap for Never-Married Adults Shrank in 2022—In 2022, the median wealth gap between U.S. men and women who had never married shrank to its smallest since 1989, but the gap remains significant.
- + U.S. and Eighth District Banks Face Challenges but Are on Solid Footing—A review of 2023 financial results shows that U.S. banks and their peers in Eighth District states generally started this year in sound financial cond...
- + Survey Shows Weakening Conditions for Economic Mobility in Eighth District—A survey of entities serving low- and moderate-income communities in the Eighth District indicates that current conditions for economic mobility remai...
- + Survey Shows Weakening Conditions for Economic Mobility in Eighth District—A survey of entities serving low- and moderate-income communities in the Eighth District indicates that current conditions for economic mobility remai...
- + Work More, Make Much More? The Relationship between Lifetime Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings—An analysis suggests that the hours that male workers spend on the job over a career is associated with both higher lifetime earnings and higher earni...
- + Work More, Make Much More? The Relationship between Lifetime Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings—An analysis suggests that the hours that male workers spend on the job over a career is associated with both higher lifetime earnings and higher earni...
- + Has the U.S. Economy Transitioned to a Higher Long-run Real Interest Rate Regime?—The long-run real market interest rate appears to be nearing the higher levels that prevailed from 2004 to 2012. Is the period of low real interest ra...
- + Output Gaps, the Taylor Rule and the Stance of Monetary Policy—The Taylor rule offers a formula to calculate a prescribed policy rate. How do alternative measures of the output gap affect this prescribed rate?
- + Core Inflation Revisited: Forecast Accuracy across Horizons—How far out can you forecast inflation? This analysis examines the accuracy of core inflation in predicting headline inflation for periods ranging fro...
- + The Labor Effects of Work from Home on Workers with a Disability—Work from home appears to have improved labor outcomes for workers with a disability in terms of unemployment, labor force participation, and wages an...
- + Millennials and Older Gen Zers Made Significant Wealth Gains in 2022—The wealth of U.S. millennials and older Gen Zers grew at an unusually fast pace from 2019 to 2022, with real estate gains driving overall asset growt...
- + Has Better Nutrition Driven Down Mortality Rates?—One popular theory has attributed the decline in death rates to improved nutrition. But an analysis of caloric intake worldwide suggests that there i...
- + Shipping Disruptions in the Red Sea: Ripples across the Globe—Recent attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted a major shipping lane. This analysis looks at the impact on shipping costs and global tr...
- + Shipping Disruptions in the Red Sea: Ripples across the Globe—Recent attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted a major shipping lane. This analysis looks at the impact on shipping costs and global tr...
- + Roundup: Technology and Central Banking, Labor Fluctuations and Trade—This blog post highlights recent research that focuses on technological change and central banking, COVID-19’s effect on labor force participation, U....
- + What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies?—While rent-control policies can mean more affordable housing for some, research shows they can also lead to a decline in the supply and quality of ren...
- + Are State and Local Governments in a Strong Fiscal Position?—Federal fiscal assistance in the COVID-19 pandemic has increased states’ budget surplus and raised recent state and local government spending above tr...
- + Which Households Prefer ARMs vs. Fixed-Rate Mortgages?—Adjustable-rate mortgages appear to be more popular with younger, higher-income households that also have bigger mortgages, according to 2019 data.
- + The Effect of Divorce on Workers’ Incomes—An analysis of census data reveals that workers who experienced a divorce in the past 12 months typically earned less than those who didn’t.
- + Terrorism in Developing and Advanced Economies: A Historical Look—An analysis compares the number of terrorism incidents in developing economies with those in advanced economies since 1970 and over the post-9/11 peri...
- + The Public Policy Impact of Economics—Heidi Hartmann, founder of the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, talks about the concept of “comparable worth” and what attracted her to the fiel...
- + Community Banking Conference Highlights Risks Industry Faces—Risk in its various forms and how it is evaluated was a prominent theme at a fall gathering of academics, bankers and regulators. A blog post summariz...
- + Unemployment and Wage Inflation: Recent Findings Using State Data—Both state-level data and individual-level data suggest that periods with low unemployment rates are also periods with more rapid wage growth, an anal...
- + How Has Household Debt Changed since 1995?—Changes in the household liability-to-income ratio appear to have been driven by a rising supply of loanable funds before 2010 and decreasing demand f...
- + Revisiting Wage Growth in 2023—An analysis finds that nominal wage growth peaked in 2022. In 2023, wages increased but at a slower rate, and growth has yet to return to pre-pandemic...
- + What’s Behind the Recent Slump in Consumer Sentiment?—Though some indicators point to a strong economy, consumer sentiment has slumped. An analysis suggests this may be due to weaker growth in real person...
- + Employers in Fed’s Eighth District Eye Softer Hiring Plans for 2024—The share of Eighth District firms planning to increase their workforce in the new year is smaller than the share in previous years.
- + Are City-Level Income Segregation and Income Inequality Related?—An analysis of the 100 largest U.S. cities found that the relationship between income inequality and income segregation became stronger from 1980 to 2...
- + Share of Americans in Financial Distress Reaches High Levels—A smaller share of Americans were in financial distress in 2021 than before the pandemic. Depending on the type of debt, the incidence of financial di...
- + Labor Force Participation and Hours Worked Recovery: U.S. vs. Europe—The labor force participation rate in the U.S. had returned to its pre-pandemic level by 2023:Q2, but hours worked per person had not. What about in E...
- + What Drove the Growth in Credit Scores during the COVID-19 Pandemic?—The percentage of people with “good” credit rose sharply during the pandemic, driven both by borrowers improving their credit and by those preserving ...
- + Compensation Patterns of Overemployed Workers—An analysis showed U.S. workers with multiple jobs had on average slightly higher annual earnings but lower hourly pay than workers with a single job.
- + Silver Spoon or Self-Made? Exploring 23 Years of Wealth Mobility—An analysis of the changes in wealth distribution as individuals age from their late 20s to early 50s reveals a substantial degree of persistence at t...
- + Recent Trends in Unauthorized Crossing Attempts at the Southwestern U.S. Border—An analysis compares the level of unauthorized border crossing attempts by different source nations before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
- + Looking Ahead to the “Last Mile” of Disinflation—During the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture on Nov. 2, 2023, economist Isabel Schnabel shared her assessment of the factors that could impact disinflation...
- + Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation—An analysis of CPI data suggests that a measure of inflation excluding food and energy and a measure excluding only energy are useful predictors of ov...
- + Bankers Name Tightening Margins, Cybersecurity as Top Challenges—Tightening margins and technology concerns top the list of challenges for community bankers, according to the 2023 CSBS Annual Survey of Community Ban...
- + The Fed’s Remittances to the Treasury: Explaining the 'Deferred Asset'—The Federal Reserve typically generates excess earnings, which it remits to the U.S. Treasury. But what happens when the Fed’s costs exceed its income...
- + How Economic News Consumption Can Create Greater Uncertainty—St. Louis Fed economist Yu-Ting Chiang discusses his research on how increased consumption of economic news during a downturn can generate greater unc...
- + What Lessons Can Be Drawn from Japan’s High Debt-to-GDP Ratio?—Taking into account other public liabilities and assets can provide a clearer picture when comparing Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio with that of the U.S.
- + Are There Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership?—An analysis shows a generational gap in the rate of homeownership, but a gap in real median income disappears when looking at college-educated individ...
- + Roundup: Wartime Inflation, COVID-19 Disparities, Blockchains and Housing—This blog post looks at St. Louis Fed research on wartime vs. pandemic inflation, COVID-19 disruptions, uses for zero-knowledge proofs, and housing ...
- + Overemployed Workers? Trends on Multiple Jobholders—After tumbling during the pandemic, the share of employed people holding more than one job has recovered to its pre-pandemic level.
- + Residential Segregation and the Black-White College Gap—Using an economic model, researchers find that racial wage disparities, the amenity externality and racial barriers to moving could help explain the...
- + What Has Been Driving World Population Growth?—The world’s population more than doubled from 1960 to 2021 despite the birth rate falling. Declining death rates in lower-income countries drove the g...
- + Is Inflation on the Way Out or Here to Stay?—An analysis suggests certain economic factors, such as excess savings, and stubborn price increases in services are risks that might delay or potentia...
- + A Look at M2 Growth and Inflation in Recent Years—The M2 measure of the money supply increased rapidly and then declined at record rates in recent years. Inflation has been following M2 growth with a ...
- + Unlike Others, the Top Earners See Strong Pay Growth Beyond Age 35—An analysis shows that the top 2% of male earners saw strong pay growth after 35. For the bottom 2% and the median worker, the pace declined or platea...
- + What Are Long and Variable Lags in Monetary Policy?—An analysis looks at where the idea of ‘long and variable lags’ in monetary policy originated and offers some reasons for why they might occur.
- + Schooling over Time and across Countries—An analysis of three rich and three poor countries found that countries where schooling grew faster also had less economic growth from 1960-2010.
- + The Impact of Higher Job Application Rates on U.S. Job Finding Rates—In recent decades, computer technology has made the job application process easier and faster. Yet the job finding rate has remained unchanged during ...
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